Smart Campaigns

"The natural formation of the country is the soldier's best ally; but a power of estimating the adversary, of controlling the forces of victory, and of shrewdly calculating difficulties, dangers and distances, constitutes the test of a great general. We are not fit to lead an army on the march unless we are familiar with the face of the country—its mountains and forests, its pitfalls and precipices, its marshes and swamps."
Sun Tzu, The Art of War (written between 400 – 320 BC)

Electoral contests have often been likened to military campaigns. In many respects the comparison is appropriate. Both are forms of conflict involving contestants who seek victory. Both kinds of contestants depend on efficient mobilization of resources to secure territorial gains. What one side gains the other loses (i.e, both contests are ‘zero-sum’). Electoral and military combat take place in different kinds of theaters, but for both, characteristics of the respective setting provide a variety of opportunities and constraints that shape successful strategies and condition outcomes. Both kinds of campaigns are controlled by key decision-makers and strategists manning “war rooms” and both deploy foot-soldiers working on the ground.

Successful campaigns are conducted intelligently and strategically by those in command of detailed knowledge of their environment. The opening quote from Sun Tzu, author of the oldest and most venerable treatise on war, suggests that this principle was developed early in the history of combat. It remains no less true for military or political battles today. No two battles or battlefields are alike. Even the smallest districts will be heterogeneous in some respect. Smart military or electoral campaigns will therefore modify and adapt general strategic principles according to the specifics of each competitive terrain and contest. These political campaigns will employ information from a variety of sources, including direct observation, past election results, census data, and their own accumulated local insight and knowledge.

Whereas in the past both types of campaigns relied more heavily on manpower than intelligence, technological and methodological developments and advances in information collection have altered this balance. Now both military and political campaigns depend on detailed information and skilled analysis. Geographic information is as critical for effective electoral campaigning as it is for military success. However, the explosion of such information can threaten successful campaigns unless it is effectively harnessed and analyzed and turned into intelligence and insight. Fortunately, the development of sophisticated computer software enables military or political campaigners to benefit from this information explosion. Called “geographic information systems (GISs),” these computer applications are transforming not just modern campaigning but many aspects of our contemporary life. As a result, in competition amateurs are at a serious disadvantage in either kind of war room.

Good competitors will know their own strengths and weaknesses. They develop a sophisticated understanding of their support base. They will also know their opponent’s strengths and weaknesses. They will heed Sun Tzu’s advice: “Carefully compare the opposing army with your own, so that you may know where strength is superabundant and where it is deficient.” Smart campaigners will avoid wasting resources attacking where the opponent is strongest. Instead, they will seek to build on their core support by seeking terrains where the prospect of victory is best.

"If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle."
Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Smart political campaigns will monitor and invest in their organization and operation, to ensure that these are as efficient as possible. Lessons will be drawn from earlier contests. Organizational form and strategy will be modified in light of these insights.

Smart campaigns develop tactics that reflect the realities of their competitive terrain. They deploy resources carefully, in ways designed to defend areas where their support is concentrated and to energize areas where their support is weaker. Only incumbents and losers run defensive campaigns aimed solely at their base of core support. Knowing where to look for new support is crucial in campaigning. In this way, growth in support is built around past support.

Even for winners, however, past strategies are but a guide for future success. Even successful campaigns must surmount unexpected challenges and adapt their strategy to evolving conditions. Knowing the terrain of battle makes such strategic adjustment possible and facilitates the successful implementation of strategic change.

"Water shapes its course according to the nature of the ground over which it flows; the soldier works out his victory in relation to the foe whom he is facing. Therefore, just as water retains no constant shape, so in warfare there are no constant conditions. He who can modify his tactics in relation to his opponent and thereby succeed in winning, may be called a heaven-born captain."
Sun Tzu, The Art of War

At this point, the analogy between electoral and military campaigns breaks down. Whereas the latter continues until all parts of the territory are subdued and physically controlled by the winner, successful electoral campaigns are declared when a candidate secures a plurality of votes in the district. Winning one more vote than your opponent is generally sufficient for victory to be declared in an electoral campaign. Every vote counts. But all campaigners know that supporters only count when they turn out to vote. Accordingly, their focus is on mobilizing both strong and weak supporters during the campaign and efficiently harvesting their votes on election day. Smart campaigners will know where their supporters live and take steps to ensure that they make it to the polls.

Smart campaigners also look to the future. Building support and organizational capacity is a continuous process that can take place between as well as during election campaigns. Good campaigners are methodical and are careful to keep a record of their efforts. They will also collect strategic intelligence on the activities of rival campaigners. These data are crucial in monitoring the effectiveness of the campaign and strategizing for future contests.

It is never too early to begin preparations. Contact us to discuss how Barometrics Research, the specialists in geographic information and analysis, can give you the competitive edge in your next electoral campaign.

"Now the general who wins a battle makes many calculations in his temple ere the battle is fought. The general who loses a battle makes but few calculations beforehand. Thus do many calculations lead to victory, and few calculations to defeat: how much more no calculation at all! It is by attention to this point that I can foresee who is likely to win or lose."
Sun Tzu, The Art of War