Our Services - Geoscience for Smart Campaigns

Our expertise lies in the application of state of the art geographic information systems (GIS) to help maximize the effectiveness of the political grassroots or “ground” campaign. We will work with you and other campaign professionals to ensure that your ground campaign is smoothly and geo-strategically integrated with your campaign carried in the airwaves.

Barometrics Research offers an array of analytic and practical assistance. Beyond the thematic mapping and walk sheet preparation that are by now commonplace in grassroots campaigns, we offer a variety of services that enlist the extraordinary power of geographic information and spatial analysis for your campaign. The key is our use of GIS-enabled analytic techniques to analyze data from a variety of sources in order to identify patterns that are not easily visible from simple descriptive data themselves.

The following services are available to our American clients. Some of these items are available in other countries. Please contact Barometrics Research if you would like to learn more about how we can work with you to find a solution to your specific needs. Working together, we can convert our geographic information and analysis into valuable insight for your campaign.

Recognizing that no two grassroots campaigns will be identical, Barometrics Research will discuss your needs and work with you to come up with an optimal program of research. To give you some idea of what is possible, however, we have developed a number of services that focus on different aspects of grassroots campaigning.

Political Support

Campaign Efficiency Index (CEI) – Using detailed geographic information on your district and its residents, we can develop a statistical model that explains general patterns of your (and other parties’) voter support in previous campaigns. In turn, we can use the model to accurately identify areas of your district or state where – based on general patterns and specific geographic distribution of population characteristics (racial composition, income distribution, economic activity, industrial structure, educational attainment, etc.) – your party/candidate performed either better or worse than expected. This enables you to assess the efficiency and success of previous campaigns, draw general lessons about the nature of your support base, and identify specific neighborhoods (and even households) on which to focus your next mobilization effort. For a discussion and illustration of the CEI in the context of an analysis of the 2000 NY state Senate election, click here.

Normal Party Vote (NPV) Analysis – Barometrics Research can provide maps and analyses of the ‘normal’ vote for your party in every corner of your district, state, or for the entire country, based on an average of the vote share at all recent elections going to your political party (including local, state, and national races). This will help identify the ‘core’ level of support for your party – and your opponents - in every corner of your district or state. Individual candidate and campaign effects associated with particular races will be subsumed in this average, leaving a relatively firm baseline of a party’s support level in each geographic unit. Once calculated, the NPV can be mapped or used in further, more sophisticated statistical analyses of party support. These analyses will point to more enduring, long-term foundations of party support in your district or state. A CEI-type analysis of your normal vote will point to areas where your party or your opponent has unusually deep or shallow partisan roots.

Taking the results of these analyses in combination, we can develop a comprehensive geopolitical map of your district or state that presents a straightforward and reliable description of the campaigning opportunities and constraints.

Registration Mobilization Index (RMI) – We can compare your party and other party’s share of the vote at various elections with official voter registration records, allowing you to identify areas where your proportion of voter support exceeds or lags behind your enrollments. As with the NPV analysis, the PMI can be mapped and/or used in more complex analyses of your party’s support.

Fund-Raising Potential (FRP Index) – Based on a statistical analysis of where financial support has come from for you or your party within your district (or if you are an incumbent, for your past campaigns), we can identify areas where your level of fund raising performance lags behind or exceeds the amount expected based on general patterns for your district. Areas with low FRP index scores are good targets for growth in campaign fund raising.

Post-Campaign Impact Assessment – For cases in which detailed records of campaign interventions (i.e. door-to-door canvassing; yard signs; leafleting, etc.) have been kept, Barometrics Research can provide a detailed and precise assessment of the electoral impact associated with your efforts. For a sample analysis, click here.

Analyses of Voter Mobilization

Knowing your support base is one important part of smart campaigning – knowing how to effectively harvest it on election day is equally important. Barometrics Research has the ability to fully support your ‘Get Out the Vote’ efforts, and our GIS-enabled statistical modeling can guide your drive with surgical precision.

GOTV Index – Using a statistical model that explains general variations in levels of voter turnout, and our information on the distribution of population characteristics, we can calculate for every part of your district, region, or state, the expected level of voter turnout. We can focus on turnout in particular kinds of races (for example Presidential, State Assembly, or other) or on an average of turnout across all races in a particular year (or selection of years). Through this analysis, we can provide you with precision indicators of the areas within your district where voter turnout is higher or lower than expected, based on the general statistical relationships we uncover and the characteristics of residents. These index scores help identify areas where a concentrated GOTV effort is likely to pay the highest dividends. For a discussion and illustration in a case study of the 2000 NY state Senate election, click here.

Pricing

We endeavor to provide the highest quality service for the lowest possible price to political campaigners.

The geographic and census information that is the raw material for Barometrics Research services is frequently available either free of charge or for a modest cost. However, preparing the data for mapping and analysis can be a time-consuming undertaking, depending on the number of observations (geographic units) and the volume of data being handled

Because these services can be provided at virtually any level or scale, it is not possible to quote a single cost for each type of analysis. By the same token, Please contact Barometrics Research to discuss your precise needs and to request a quote for any or all of these services.